After weeks of weird stats, it’s now time for the grand finale of the season. Of course, I’m talking about the Super Bowl. First off, I’m not sure what I’m going to be doing with this series after the Super Bowl with regards to the offseason; I’ll definitely have one of these threads for the NFL Draft, but with everything else, I’m not sure. I’ll come up with something, though- I want to keep producing this content in the offseason the same way that I do in the regular season, because it helps me get through those six dark months (and if it helps you guys too, then great).
We’re going to divide this one up into a few different categories. Part I is going to be between the Broncos and the Panthers. Part II is going to be some weird stats from Super Bowl history. And, part III is the grand finale. It’s the big kahuna. It’s the part that I’ve been holding from you guys for a very long time. It’s the weirdest stat not just that I’ve ever come up with, but quite possibly, of all-time (sounds like an exaggeration now, but when you see it, you’ll see what I mean). I’ll explain how you can relate the halftime show to how good or bad the game turns out to be. But, we’re saving that for a bit. Let’s start off this thread with the Broncos/Panthers history.
Part I- Broncos vs. Panthers - The Broncos and the Panthers have played each other four times- twice at each city. However, due to a weird scheduling quirk, the Broncos played their first 2 games against the Panthers in Denver, and the Panthers played their next 2 games against the Broncos in Charlotte. The teams met in 1997 (Denver), 2004 (Denver), 2008 (Charlotte) and 2012 (Charlotte).
- Each game between the Panthers and Broncos has had a different leading rusher for each team.
| Year | Broncos Leading Rusher | Panthers Leading Rusher |
| 1997 | Terrell Davis | Fred Lane |
| 2004 | Reuben Droughns | Nick Goings |
| 2008 | PJ Pope | DeAngelo Williams |
| 2012 | Willis McGahee | Jonathan Stewart |
- This shouldn’t come as entirely surprising, but the QB that has thrown for the most passing yards in every game between the Broncos and the Panthers has won
| Year | Broncos Passing Yards | Panthers Passing Yards | Winner |
| 1997 | 233 | 113 | Broncos |
| 2004 | 224 | 163 | Broncos |
| 2008 | 158 | 253 | Panthers |
| 2012 | 295 | 198 | Broncos |
- Every single year that the Broncos and Panthers have met, the previous year’s R&B #1 single had a three-word title
| Year | Previous Year’s #1 R&B Single |
| 1997 | Let It Flow (released as a double-A side with another Toni Braxton song) |
| 2004 | In Da Club |
| 2008 | Lost Without U |
| 2012 | Love on Top |
| 2016 | See You Again |
- The Panthers have won a playoff game in five separate seasons. All five seasons, the Denver Broncos were in the playoffs that same season.
- When the last Christmas #1 single in the United Kingdom was recorded by a solo male artist, the Panthers have won every meeting against the Broncos. When it was recorded by either multiple artists or a female artist, the Broncos have won.
| Year | Previous Year’s #1 Christmas Single | Artist | Winner |
| 1997 | 2 Become 1 | Spice Girls | Denver |
| 2004 | Mad World | Michael Andrews & Gary Jules | Denver |
| 2008 | When You Believe | Leon Jackson | Carolina |
| 2012 | Wherever You Are | Military Wives & Gareth Malone | Denver |
The last #1 Christmas single in the UK was “A Bridge over You” by the Lewisham and Greenwich NHS Choir, which consists of both males and females. Advantage to the Broncos here.
- Here’s the strangest one of them all: This is the fifth meeting between the Broncos and the Panthers. Every single time that they’ve met, the New England Patriots were involved in the previous year’s Super Bowl.
| Year | Last Super Bowl Played | Was New England There? |
| 1997 | XXXI | Yes |
| 2004 | XXXVIII | Yes |
| 2008 | XLII | Yes |
| 2012 | XLVI | Yes |
| 2016 | XLIX | Yes |
- This is the third time that the Broncos have ever played an opponent exactly four times before playing them the fifth time in the Super Bowl, as they played both the New York Giants and Washington beforehand four times before meeting up in Super Bowls XXI and XXII, respectively. Oddly enough, both of those games were held in California. Denver lost both. Super Bowl 50 is being held in California.
- The Panthers have played the Broncos four times. The Panthers are 0-3 when they do not attempt a field goal or when they do not hit 100% of their field goals. Their lone win came when they were perfect on field goal attempts.
- All five times that the Panthers and Broncos have now met, the previous year’s Super Bowl was held in a facility that either has a retractable roof or a dome.
| Year | Last Super Bowl Played | Facility |
| 1997 | XXXI | Louisiana Superdome |
| 2004 | XXXVIII | Reliant Stadium |
| 2008 | XLII | University of Phoenix Stadium |
| 2012 | XLVI | Lucas Oil Stadium |
| 2016 | XLIX | University of Phoenix Stadium |
- Every time that the Jaguars finish a season 5-11, the Broncos and Panthers play each other the following yeaafter the Jags season is done.
| Year | Jags Record | Did They Meet? |
| 2004 | 5-11 (2003) | Yes |
| 2012 | 5-11 (2011) | Yes |
| 2016 | 5-11 (2015) | Yes |
Seeing as these two teams will meet again next regular season, this trend will continue.
- When the most recent champion of The Masters is American, the Broncos have never lost to the Panthers. When the most recent champion of The Masters is not American, the Panthers have never lost to the Broncos
| Year | Masters Champion | Nationality | Winner |
| 1997 | Tiger Woods | USA | Denver |
| 2004 | Phil Michelson | USA | Denver |
| 2008 | Trevor Immelman | South Africa | Carolina |
| 2012 | Bubba Watson | USA | Denver |
For the record, the most recent champion of The Masters was Jordan Speith, an American. Advantage to the Broncos here.
- When the most recent Champions League final is held between two teams from different nations, Denver has never lost to Carolina. When the most recent Champions League final is being held between two teams from the same country, Carolina has never lost to Denver
| Year | Champions League teams | Countries Involved | Winner |
| 1997 | Borussia Dortmund & Juventus | Germany/Italy | Denver |
| 2004 | FC Porto & AS Monaco | Portugal/Monaco | Denver |
| 2008 | Manchester United & Chelsea | England | Carolina |
| 2012 | Chelsea & Bayern Munich | England/Germany | Denver |
The most recent Champions League final was held between FC Barcelona (Spain) and Juventus (Italy), so once again, advantage to the Broncos here.
- And finally for part I, when the band Chicago releases an album of new material, the Panthers have never lost to the Broncos. When Chicago either releases an album of old material or does not release an album in the same year as the game, the Broncos have never lost.
| Year | Did Chicago Release a Studio Album? | Winner |
| 1997 | No (The Heart of Chicago- 1967-1997 was not a studio album) | Denver |
| 2004 | No | Denver |
| 2008 | Yes (Chicago XXXII: Stone of Sisyphus) | Carolina |
| 2012 | No | Denver |
Chicago has not released an album in the first month of 2016. Advantage to the Broncos here, once again.
Part II- Super Bowl History - This is Carolina’s second Super Bowl appearance. They made it to Super Bowl XXXVIII in the 2003 season. That year, they opened up the season with a week 1 victory against Jacksonville. This season, the Panthers opened up with a week 1 victory against Jacksonville.
- This is Denver’s eighth appearance in the Super Bowl. Half of the time, Denver’s appearance in the Super Bowl was the first time that the venue was hosting the game. It happened at Super Bowl XII (Superdome), Super Bowl XXII (Jack Murphy Stadium), and Super Bowl XLVIII (MetLife Stadium), and will happen this year. Denver lost all three times.
- The average margin of victory of Super Bowls played in California is 19.6 points. They’ve been blowouts; only 2 of the 11 games were decided by single digit points.
- From Super Bowl XXXIX to Super Bowl XLVII, there was a way to predict who was going to win the Super Bowl with 100% accuracy, purely by judging the entrance songs by each team. It alternated every year between the older song and the newer song. Basically, whichever team had the older walkout song every other year would win, and whichever team had the newer walkout song every other year would win
| Super Bowl | Winner | Entrance Song | Year | Loser | Entrance Song | Year | Old or New? |
| XXXIX | NE | Crazy Train | 1980 | PHI | Thunderstruck | 1990 | Old |
| XL | PIT | Right Here, Right Now | 1999 | SEA | Bittersweet Symphony | 1998 | New |
| XLI | IND | Won’t Get Fooled Again | 1971 | CHI | Ladies and Gentlemen | 2006 | Old |
| XLII | NYG | Stronger | 2007 | NE | Crazy Train | 1980 | New |
| XLIII | PIT | Right Here, Right Now | 1999 | ARZ | Ignition | 2007 | Old |
| XLIV | NO | Sirius | 1982 | IND | Won’t Get Fooled Again | 1971 | New |
| XLV | GB | Get Ready for This | 1991 | PIT | Right Here, Right Now | 1999 | Old |
| XLVI | NYG | Written in the Stars | 2010 | NE | Crazy Train | 1980 | New |
| XLVII | BAL | Where the Streets Have No Name | 1987 | SF | California Love | 1995 | Old |
This worked with 100% accuracy up until Super Bowl XLVIII. Keep in mind that Super Bowl XXXIX was the earliest video that I could find of entrance songs, and prior to Super Bowl XXXVIII, teams got introduced as individual players, and not as teams
- There has never been a punt return for a touchdown in the history of the Super Bowl
- Only one player has ever been ejected from a Super Bowl- Bruce Irvin from Super Bowl XLIX at the end of the game
- If the weird stats hold up, then this Super Bowl is going to stink. I’m not just talking about the California stat- there are plenty of other stats to back this up as well, like this one about attendance. When the attendance of a Super Bowl reaches a certain range, it can result in a blowout.
| Attendance at the Super Bowl | Super Bowls to Fit This Criteria | Margin of Victory |
| 70,000 or less | I, XXVI, XXXII, XXXVII, XL | 14.5 pts |
| 70,000-72,000 | VIII, XXXV, XXXVIII, XLII, XLIII, XLVII, XLIX | 8.71 pts |
| 72,000-73,000 | XVIII, XXIV, XXVIII, XXXI, XXXIV, XXXVI | 20.83 pts |
| 73,000-75,000 | XX, XXII, XXV, XXXIII, XXXIX, XLI, XLIV | 19 pts |
| 75,000-77,000 | II, III, XII, XV, XXIII, XXX | 12.66 pts |
| 77,000-81,000 | IV, V, IX, X, XIII, XXXIX | 6.66 pts |
| 81,000-100,000 | VI, VII, XVI, XIX, XXVII, XLVIII | 21.4 pts |
| 100,000 or more | XI, XIV, XXI, XXVII, XLV | 13 pts |
Levi’s Stadium can be expanded to approximately 75,000 seats, so we’re either getting a Super Bowl in that 20.83 pts range or in that 19 pts range. Not good.
- The average margin of victory for Super Bowls that end in the number 0 (ex: X, XX, XXX, XL) is 15.25 points.
- If you’re doing your prop bets and are betting on a team to win the coin toss, put your money on the Panthers. This is the result of the last 11 coin tosses that did not take place in a dome, and took place in an outdoor venue.
| Super Bowl | Team that won the toss | Result of the flip | Venue |
| XXIX | 49ers | Heads | Joe Robbie Stadium |
| XXX | Cowboys | Tails | Sun Devil Stadium |
| XXXII | Packers | Tails | Qualcomm Stadium |
| XXXIII | Falcons | Tails | Pro Player Stadium |
| XXXV | Giants | Tails | Raymond James Stadium |
| XXXVII | Buccaneers | Tails | Qualcomm Stadium |
| XXXIX | Eagles | Tails | Alltel Stadium |
| XLI | Bears | Heads | Dolphin Stadium |
| XLIII | Cardinals | Heads | Raymond James Stadium |
| XLIV | Saints | Heads | Sun Life Stadium |
| XLVIII | Seahawks | Tails | MetLife Stadium |
Notice a theme here? The last 11 coin tosses that took place in outdoor venues were won by the NFC team. The last time that an AFC team won the coin toss outdoors was all the way back at Super Bowl XXVII, when the Bills won the toss. The last time that an AFC team won the coin toss outdoors AND won the Super Bowl was Super Bowl XVIII, when the Los Angeles Raiders did it.
- This is the fourteenth Super Bowl to take place between two teams playing in cities that have never won the World Series; the most recent one was Super Bowl XLVIII between the Broncos and the Seahawks. The average margin of victory in these games is 19.14 points, with only two games (Super Bowls VII and XXXII) being decided by single digits
- Does winning the conference championship game by a significant amount of points matter? Surprisingly enough, it actually favors those that played closer games. Since the turn of the millennium in 2000, teams that have worse margins of victory in the conference championship are 9-5 in Super Bowls.
| Super Bowl | AFC Champion | Margin of Victory | NFC Champion | Margin of Victory | Winner |
| XXXIV | Titans | 19 | Rams | 5 | Worse |
| XXXV | Ravens | 13 | Giants | 41 | Worse |
| XXXVI | Patriots | 7 | Rams | 5 | Greater |
| XXXVII | Raiders | 17 | Buccaneers | 17 | N/A |
| XXXVIII | Patriots | 10 | Panthers | 11 | Worse |
| XXXIX | Patriots | 14 | Eagles | 17 | Worse |
| XL | Steelers | 17 | Seahawks | 20 | Worse |
| XLI | Colts | 4 | Bears | 25 | Worse |
| XLII | Patriots | 9 | Giants | 3 | Worse |
| XLIII | Steelers | 9 | Cardinals | 7 | Greater |
| XLIV | Colts | 13 | Saints | 3 | Worse |
| XLV | Steelers | 5 | Packers | 7 | Greater |
| XLVI | Patriots | 3 | Giants | 3 | N/A |
| XLVII | Ravens | 15 | 49ers | 4 | Greater |
| XLVIII | Broncos | 10 | Seahawks | 6 | Worse |
| XLIX | Patriots | 38 | Seahawks | 6 | Greater |
The Broncos won the AFC Championship this year by 2 points. The Panthers won the NFC Championship by 34 points. The stats favor the Broncos, especially when considering the fact that teams that win the conference championship by more than 17 points since the turn of the millennium are 1-4 in the Super Bowl.
- When Alabama is the defending champion of college football, the average margin of victory in the following Super Bowl is 13 points.
- The last time that a team won the Super Bowl in the same stadium of a team in their division was when the Denver Broncos won Super Bowl XXXII at Qualcomm Stadium. Since then, including this year, teams are 0-for-19 (since Super Bowl XLVIII counts twice due to the Jets and Giants).
- There have been two Super Bowls played in precipitation- Super Bowl XLI and Super Bowl XLVIII (parts of the game had a light drizzle). Both games involved Peyton Manning.
- When the Chicago Blackhawks made the Stanley Cup, the average margin of victory in the following Super Bowl is 22.8 points. The Chicago Blackhawks are the defending Stanley Cup champions.
| Year of Stanley Cup Victory | Next Super Bowl | Margin of Victory |
| 1971 | VI | 21 |
| 1973 | VIII | 17 |
| 1992 | XXVII | 35 |
| 2010 | XLV | 6 |
| 2013 | XLVIII | 35 |
- And finally, having the Mets in the World Series is not a good sign for the upcoming Super Bowl. The Mets have made the World Series four times, excluding the 2015 season. The average margin of victory in the Super Bowls following that was 19.75 points. Remember that the Mets made the World Series in 2015.
| Year of World Series Appearance | Next Super Bowl | Margin of Victory |
| 1969 | IV | 16 |
| 1973 | VIII | 17 |
| 1986 | XXI | 19 |
| 2000 | XXXV | 27 |
Part III- The Weirdest Stat of All Well, this is the moment you’ve all been waiting for. I’ve been holding off this stat for a long time; I think I’ve been holding this one off ever since I started the Weird Stat Thread. This is the big one, and it’s one that I’ve had in my back pocket for a very long time. By a very long time, I’m talking about the fact that I’ve been keeping this stat since December of 2013. However, because it’s very hard to explain verbally (and you’ll see why), and because I’ve never had a platform like this before, I’ve never been able to share it to the world.
Now is the time. After more than two years of waiting and refining the stat, it’s finally time to reveal it. It doesn’t tell you who will win the Super Bowl, but it can tell you how good or bad the Super Bowl will be. You can tell how good or bad the show is going to be simply by the halftime show. Keep in mind that this is not a stat based on opinion; I’m not saying that if the halftime show is good, then the Super Bowl will be good, or vice versa. This is a stat based off of numbers, and strange numbers at that. Let’s break this stat down into parts.
History of the Halftime Show I’m not going to dive too much into the history of the show, because I’ve done that for an entire series. If you want to check that out, then
here’s the link to the most recent one on the Katy Perry halftime show. I bring this up because it’s important in our understanding of the stat, and in terms of when the cut-off date is going to be. Most of the Super Bowls prior to Super Bowl XXV featured marching bands, Disney performances, or really bad magic tricks. However, from Super Bowl XXV-on, each halftime show featured at least one artist. That doesn’t mean that the shows were good; I still think that the Super Bowl XXV halftime show is the worst of all-time. However, from Super Bowl XXV-on, there was at least one recognizable name in each halftime show. For this reason, our cut-off date is Super Bowl XXV.
The Stat and the Guidelines How the stat works is incredibly confusing and took a very long time to figure out, but let’s see if you can follow along with me on this one. Here’s the simple form of it:
Take the first singer that performs in the halftime show (ex: Katy Perry was the first performer in Super Bowl XLIX, not Lenny Kravitz or Missy Elliott). Now, take the longest song that the artist has ever recorded in their lifetime up until that point. By knowing the length of that song, you can determine how good or bad the Super Bowl is going to be
Sounds confusing? In more broken down terms, we’re taking the first artist that is performing at the halftime show. After taking that artist, we’re looking at their entire discography and picking out the longest song that this artist has. If that song is a certain length, the game will be good; if it’s not, then the game will be bad. However, for this stat to work, we need some qualifiers.
- Live songs count, so long as those songs came off of a live album. I’m not counting YouTube performances; they have to be off of an album off of Spotify
- Songs performed in a language other than English do not count
- Remixes do not count, even if these remixes were released on an album
- Christmas songs or holiday singles do not count
- By first artist, I’m talking about the first singer. As an example, at Super Bowl XXXIII, we’re using Stevie Wonder, not Big Bad Voodoo Daddy
- If the artist performed the song as a part of a group, it counts (ex: Paul McCartney’s work with The Beatles counts in this stat)
Now that we’ve got the guidelines down, it’s time to look at the songs.
The Table | Super Bowl | First Artist | Longest Song | Song Length | Margin of Victory |
| XXV | New Kids on the Block | My Favorite Girl | 5:28 | 1 |
| XXVI | Gloria Estefan | Here We Are | 4:50 | 13 |
| XXVII | Michael Jackson | Will You Be There | 7:40 | 35 |
| XXVIII | Clint Black | We Tell Ourselves | 4:39 | 17 |
| XXIX | Patti LaBelle | Music Is My Way of Life | 8:12 | 23 |
| XXX | Diana Ross | Love Hangover | 7:48 | 10 |
| XXXI | Blues Brothers | Sweet Home Chicago | 7:53 | 14 |
| XXXII | The Temptations | Papa Was a Rolling Stone | 6:52 | 7 |
| XXXIII | Stevie Wonder | Another Star | 8:29 | 15 |
| XXXIV | Christina Aguilera | Somebody’s Somebody | 5:03 | 7 |
| XXXV | *NSYNC | That’s When I’ll Stop Loving You | 4:52 | 27 |
| XXXVI | U2 | Lemon | 6:59 | 3 |
| XXXVII | Shania Twain | From This Moment On | 4:52 | 27 |
| XXXVIII | Janet Jackson | Any Time, Any Place | 7:09 | 3 |
| XXXIX | Paul McCartney | Hey Jude | 7:11 | 3 |
| XL | The Rolling Stones | Miss You | 8:36 | 11 |
| XLI | Prince | Purple Rain | 8:43 | 12 |
| XLII | Tom Petty and The Heartbreakers | House in the Woods | 5:32 | 3 |
| XLIII | Bruce Springsteen | Jungleland | 9:36 | 4 |
| XLIV | The Who | Won’t Get Fooled Again | 8:34 | 14 |
| XLV | The Black Eyed Peas | They Don’t Want Music | 6:47 | 6 |
| XLVI | Madonna | Physical Attraction | 6:40 | 4 |
| XLVII | Beyonce | Dance for You | 6:18 | 3 |
| XLVIII | Bruno Mars | It Will Rain | 4:18 | 35 |
| XLIX | Katy Perry | Lost | 4:59 | 4 |
Analysis of the Table Let’s take a look at the longest song lengths, because right now, this is just a bunch of numbers. However, when you look at it more closely, these numbers are heavily related.
| Longest Song Length | Occurrences | Games Decided by Single Digits | Average Margin of Victory |
| Less than 4:55 | 5 | 0 | 23.8 points |
| 4:55-7:11 | 11 | 11 | 3.7 points |
| Greater than 7:11 | 9 | 1 | 15.33 points |
If the longest song by the first halftime show artist fits the range of 4:55-7:11, then expect the game to be really good. If it doesn’t… expect a blowout, or, at the very least, a 2-possession game. The only one that didn’t fit the 4:55-7:11 range and ended up being a single digit game was Super Bowl XLIII. Every other game was decided by double digits. Want to know why you had a string of good Super Bowls in a row, and then, you had a blowout at Super Bowl XLVIII? Blame Bruno Mars for that.
What Does This Mean for Coldplay? The odds are likely that Coldplay will be the first performer at the Super Bowl 50 halftime show, since they are the headlining act. What’s the longest song in their discography that comes off of a studio album? Unfortunately for us, Coldplay released a live album in 2003 called
Live 2003 (original name, I know), and one of the songs on that album is “Everything’s Not Lost.” This song clocks in at 8:48, which fits in the “Greater than 7:11” range. Remember that in the 9 occurrences of this, only once has the game finished in single digits, and the average margin of victory is more than two touchdowns.
Conclusion Based on that stat, expect a really bad Super Bowl, unfortunately. Hopefully, it’s not the case; I’d much rather be entertained for another Super Bowl than to have my weird stat be correct and watch another blowout. That being said, the numbers have held true for more than 25 years. This isn’t good for Super Bowl 50. One way or the other, you may be looking at a blowout.
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