BetEasy becomes the NBA's official wagering partner in

After our incredible journey on the 5 day cricket test match, I would completely understand if you didn't want to put yourself through the emotional rollercoaster again. I wouldn't post on here unless I had done some research and determined that I really liked this bet. I'll preface the write-up by saying that this is no "lock of the century," but I do think the bookies have underrated this severely. I will explain my reasoning below.

Format:
(1) The pick
(2) The odds + bookmakers
(3) Reasons why this bet could LOSE
(4) Reasons why I really like this bet
(5) TLDR

(1)
Giannis Antetokounmpo to lead the 2019 FIBA World in total points scored

(2)
I got in at 5.00 (decimal)/ +400 American on Bet365, however, regrettably this has gone down to 4.5/ +350.
On other Aussie bookmakers, you can fetch:

4.6/ +360 on Topsport
4.0/ +300 on Beteasy
4.33/ +333 on Sportsbet
3.5/ +250 on Pointsbet (sorry, I made this one drop from 4.5/ +350 as well).

I'm sure my international friends can find comparable odds at your respective betting sites.

(3)
It's always important to consider how the bet can fall apart. Only considering the positives lends itself to making biased decisions, nit-picking only the information which helps your argument. So, here's where things can go wrong:

We need him to beat a field of essentially 100's of other players - although realistically it's about 10 guys who can win. To name a few, we have Bogdanovic of Serbia, Mitchell and Kemba of USA, Mills of Australia (woo!), Schroder of Germany, Fournier of France, Jokic of Serbia and so on.
Giannis sat out Greece's last warm-up game with "knee irritation". This is most likely just a team cautiously sitting their lone star in a meaningless game, but you never know. Having not heard anything to the contrary, I am assuming he will not miss any time, but injuries are just a reality we have to deal with when betting on sport.
We are relying on Greece progressing past the group stages: if they somehow fall apart and do not progress, then this bet is kaput (if you don't know what that word means, look it up).

(4)
These are the reasons why I think this bet is tremendous value, with the final point being the real kicker.

I think it goes without saying Giannis is the star of the tournament. He averaged 27.7ppg last NBA season and is the reigning MVP. His play in the warm ups has shown he is in good form and is very passionate about leading Greece. This isn't a chore for him and there is no hidden agenda. He is here to win.
He should score with ease; his size puts him up there with most team's tallest player, while possessing the agility of a guard. As an example, he scored 26 points against Dominican Republic the other day in a measly 22 minutes. A couple weeks ago he had 18 vs Italy in just 19 minutes. Keep in mind that FIBA matches are only 40 minutes, and Giannis will probably see 30+ minutes on average. In previous World Cups the top scorers usually average points in the low 20's. I think Giannis should comfortably reach that benchmark, hopefully dropping a 30 point game or two.
Greece are the third favourite to win the tournament, suggesting that they are expected to make at least the final 8 (you'll understand shortly why that is the benchmark we are aiming for).
The format has changed this year. This is the most important point and where I think the books have missed something. Try keep up...
- 2010 was the last year that the World Cup included Classification games. These are games in which teams who got knocked out in the quarter finals, would still play consolation games to be given a final classification (i.e. to determine who officially finishes 5th, 6th, 7th or 8th).
- So this means that even if you got knocked out in the quarter finals (final 8), you would still have 2 more games remaining, instead of ending your tournament prematurely.
- To see a visual representation, see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_FIBA_World_Championship and scroll down to Championship Bracket. You'll notice that Russia get knocked out by USA in the quarter finals, then subsequently lose to Argentina in the Classification round, yet still play another game against Slovenia to determine 7th place.
- Now you might ask: do these games count towards "tournament points scored?" Which is exactly what I was wondering...
- If you look at the official statistics from 2010 (sorted by total points) here: https://archive.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/statistics/p/rpp//tid/0/sid/4728/sp/ALL/ss/PT/srid/ALL/_/2010_FIBA_World_Championship/player-leaders.html you will notice Timofey Mozgov placing in at 8th, with 117 points in a total of 9 games played. Hence, his Classification games were still counted towards his total tournament points.
- In 2014 they eliminated classification games. See Final Round here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_FIBA_Basketball_World_Cup where Spain get knocked out by France, and do not play any further games in the tournament. Funny side note: Pau Gasol still lead the tournament in total points!.
- This year they are bringing the classification system back!
- ALSO... (this is important too): they are now employing 2 group stages. There will be 8 groups of 4, with each team playing 3 games. The top 2 teams from each group will move on to the second group stage, where 2 teams from one group will merge with 2 teams from another group to form a new group of 4. They will then proceed to now play another 2 games (this is because they don't play against the team who was in their group in stage 1). So by making it out of the first round, you are automatically going to play 5 games. If you make it out of the second group stage you are now in the quarter finals. Regardless of whether you win a game from here or not, you will play 3 more games (because, remember, even if you get knocked out at this point, you move to the Classification round). See here: http://www.fiba.basketball/basketballworldcup/2019#|tab=event_brackets for the official bracket format for this year's tournament.
- So how does this dramatically boost Giannis' chances? Anyone who has made a bet like this (be it, most goals scored in the Fifa World Cup, most goals scored in the AFL Finals series, Most points scored throughout the NBA playoffs) will understand that this is partly a bet on the individual player, but also a bet on the team. If the team gets knocked out early, it is rare - almost impossible even - for the player to win the statistical category. But all Greece need to do is make the quarter finals for Giannis to reach the maximum of 8 games. At this point, no player can play more games than Giannis and it is essentially a bet of who will average the most PPG. If it comes down to a PPG battle, I think Giannis would be an odds-on favourite to win that.
- What do Greece need to do to reach the quarter finals? First, they must finish top 2 in their group. The other teams they are competing with are Brazil, Montenegro and New Zealand. I am fairly confident that Greece should not drop a single game here (for context, they are paying 1.10/ -1000 to beat Montenegro in their first game of the tournament). If they proceed to group stage 2 the top two teams in their group will merge with the top 2 teams of group E (USA, Czech Republic, Turkey, Japan). We can assume that USA will probably emerge as the top seed in this group, so the only place our bet can really falter, is if Greece somehow finish below the team who accompanies USA from group E, or the team which accompanies Greece from group F. Keep in mind that points from group stage 1 carry over to group stage 2. Meaning that the team accompanying USA from group E will likely have 1 loss and (assuming Greece sweep their group), the team who accompanies them will also have a loss, while USA and Greece will be 3-0. This would be highly advantageous in terms of advancing to the quarter finals.

(5)
TLDR: Bet on Giannis Antetokounmpo to lead the 2019 FIBA World in total points scored at odds of about 4.5/ +350 because the changed format means that it is very likely Greece will play the maximum of 8 games, and if that comes to fruition, Giannis will be the overwhelming favourite to outscore everyone else.

EDIT: There is also a classification round for teams 9-16 and 17-32, but I do not know if these games will count towards the official tournament statistics. If they do, then I think this bet is even better, but I am not relying on it. If anyone knows the answer I'm keen to hear.

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BetEasy becomes the NBA's official wagering partner in

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